ELECTION 2008 Primary turnout lowest on record
With no high-profile issues on the ballot, many state voters decide to sit this one out

John Wildermuth, Chronicle Staff Writer

Saturday, June 7, 2008

Voter turnout for this week's election will rank as the lowest ever in a California primary, officials said Friday, drawing less than half the percentage of registered voters as February's presidential primary.

Tuesday's turnout is currently at 22.6 percent. And while the addition of more than 700,000 uncounted votes will boost that total, the final figure will be well below the previous low of 33.6 percent in June 2006.

"When everything is counted, the statewide turnout will probably reach 26 or 27 percent," said Steve Weir, Contra Costa County's top election official and head of the state Association of Clerks and Election Officials. "But there's no reason to be surprised by it, since the top of the ticket drives turnout unless there's a hot ballot measure."

The November general election, which will feature the presidential race and several big-ticket statewide measures, could draw three times more turnout than this week, Weir said.

Tuesday's dismal showing was a done deal as soon as the Legislature agreed last year to move the state's presidential primary to the first week of February, while leaving the legislative races almost alone on the June ballot. A pair of statewide ballot measures on eminent domain weren't enough to bring voters out.

The decision to split the primary did wonders for the Feb. 5 presidential primary, which attracted nearly 58 percent of the state's voters and made California a major player on the national political scene. But that success came at the expense of the legislative races, which most voters treated as an electoral afterthought.

"This was one of the concerns back when the split primary was proposed," said Kate Folmar, a spokeswoman for Secretary of State Debra Bowen. "The turnout in June is a disappointment to Secretary Bowen, but at the same time it's impossible to know if it would have been much better if the presidential primary had been included."

Preliminary turnout figures in the Bay Area ranged from a low of 21.4 percent in San Mateo County to a high of 37.7 percent in Sonoma. Those numbers are guaranteed to rise as provisional ballots and mail ballots that arrived on election day are tallied. In Napa County for example, election day turnout was about 30 percent, but county registrar John Tuteur expects that the final figure will be around 43 percent.

The turnout figures were especially low in Southern California, with only 16 percent of the voters in sprawling Los Angeles County casting ballots. Voters stayed away in droves in Republican strongholds such as Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Fresno counties, which all had preliminary turnouts below 20 percent.

Ron Nehring, head of the state Republican Party, said the lousy showings in those counties will have no effect on the November presidential showdown between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.

"We're not concerned, since the Republican turnout operation is geared to the general election," he said.

Tuesday's election also will be the first statewide contest where the majority of ballots were cast by mail. Although statewide totals aren't available, most Bay Area counties already are reporting that mailed ballots represented better than 60 percent of their turnout, a number that will rise as the remaining ballots are tallied.

"Vote-by-mail has been really popular, since it gives California voters the convenience of voting when they want," Folmar said. "Mail voters also tend to be the most likely to cast ballots."

San Francisco was one of the few exceptions to the mail voting trend. About 56 percent of the votes recorded by election day were cast at polling places.

"Voting in San Francisco is still very traditional," said John Arntz, the city's election director. "People like going to the polls here."

Uncounted ballots still could make a difference in a pair of tight Bay Area races.

In the GOP primary in the East Bay's 15th Assembly District, San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson held a 177-vote lead over Livermore businessman Robert Rao as of Friday afternoon. On the Peninsula, San Mateo County Supervisor Jerry Hill led Millbrae Mayor Gina Papan by 297 votes in the 19th Assembly District's Democratic primary.

E-mail John Wildermuth at jwildermuth@sfchronicle.com.